GOLD Forecast

Bullish Case: Centrally bank gold accumulation and fiscal dominance suggest robust gold demand. Recent Barrick JV in Dominican Republic and Tanzanian projects present potential upside. GOLD's historical returns favor positive outcomes over extended periods.

Bearish Case: Flat GOLD price action, high production costs, and CEO scrutiny create headwinds. Implied volatility is compressed, indicating limited market movement. Operational setbacks persist despite minor production uptick, impacting future profitability.

Potential Outcomes:

1. GOLD spikes due to macro volatility (30%),

2. Central bank buying drives sustained demand (60%),

3. Production issues constrain growth (40%),

4. Reko Diq JV becomes material catalyst (50%).

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May 21, 2024

Barrick Gold Forecast

GOLD      Barrick Gold

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