GOLD Forecast


Bullish Case: Barrick Gold (GOLD) benefits from ongoing central bank gold purchases and solid Asian demand. Exploration success and strategic partnerships provide long-term growth potential.


Bearish Case: Operational setbacks and rising production costs remain key risks. Geopolitical issues and investor shifts towards digital assets could limit GOLD's upside.


Potential Outcomes: GOLD surpasses expectations by Q4 (30%). Production costs and geopolitical risks hurt earnings (40%). Strategic investments, such as Reko Diq, provide positive catalysts (30%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate bull call spreads with 12/20/2024 21/22 strikes. Leverage the backwardation in the volatility curve with a long volatility stance. Beneficial for both bullish and bearish outcomes. Target about 20%-30% ROI with minimal risk.


July 17, 2024


Barrick Gold Forecast

GOLD      Barrick Gold











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOLD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.29)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOLD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.29)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOLD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.29)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)





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