Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increasing gold demand due to geopolitical tensions and rising inflation can elevate Barrick Gold's price beyond $20, benefitting from robust demand for safe-haven assets and strategic partnerships like Reko Diq.

Bearish Case: Persistent production costs and operational challenges could push Barrick Gold down below $15, particularly if macroeconomic stability shifts investor focus away from gold as an asset.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Market turmoil drives gold prices up by 60%.

2. Inflation pressures margins, leading to 20% reduced profitability.

3. Successful Reko Diq project boosts Barrick's production by 25%.

4. Supply chain disruptions decrease output by 15%. Probabilities: 30%, 35%, 20%, 15% respectively.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish long volatility strategy by buying the $17.5 call and selling the $18.0 call for December expiration. Leverage current high implied volatility (60%) for strong return potential, with an estimated profit of 40% if underlying settles above $18. Optimal for bullish sentiment.

November 13, 2024