Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Continued exploration successes and rising oil prices may catalyze GPRK's price recovery, aligning with past historical returns indicating potential upside over longer holding periods.

Bearish Case: Heightened geopolitical risks and falling oil prices could further dampen investor sentiment, reflecting typical patterns seen in the historical return surface, leading to potential declines.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40% chance of moderate gains from positive oil price trends and exploration successes.
• 30% chance of flat performance due to market indecision and investor skepticism.
• 30% chance of decline driven by geopolitical tensions or poor financial results.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a call debit spread (buying the 10.00 C 12/2024 and selling the 12.50 C) to capitalize on a bullish sentiment around expected oil price recovery while hedging against potential pullbacks. The current high implied volatility suggests substantial upside potential with controlled risk.

November 24, 2024