Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Halliburton (HAL) may benefit from expected growth in customer spending (~10% in North America) alongside high-teens growth internationally, bolstered by ongoing technological advancements and cost efficiencies.

Bearish Case: Potential declines in U.S. shale activity and ongoing legal disputes pose risks for HAL, especially if rig counts continue to drop, negatively impacting financial performance and investor confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of robust international growth mitigating domestic risks.
• 50% chance continuous decline in U.S. shale activity worsens financial figures.
• 20% chance legal disputes affect reputation significantly.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish sentiment by initiating a call debit spread, buying HAL 12/20/2024 $32.00 Calls (IV 24.4%) and selling $34.00 Calls (IV 28.3%). Focus on short-term gains leveraging expected volatility improvements, maximizing reward-to-risk ratio.

December 01, 2024