HIG Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The low price-to-book ratio of 1.4 and digital initiatives position HIG for growth. Implied volatility trends show potential undervaluation, supporting a positive long-term outlook.




Bearish Case: Mean-reverting nature and high implied volatility suggest overvaluation risks. HIG's exposure to regulatory changes may drive downside corrections, particularly with term structure showing higher volatilities.




Potential Outcomes: HIG may stabilize at $124.4 with a 40% probability due to balanced volatilities. There's a 30% chance for gains to $130, driven by positive sentiment, and 30% chance of correction to $115 amidst high volatility.




Trading Oracle:
Execute a Bullish Short Volatility strategy due to HIG’s higher implied volatility over the market, capturing premium by selling puts and buying more out-of-the-money puts. This leverages favorable risk-return ratios and hedges against volatility shifts. Details



April 01, 2025


Hartford Financial Services Forecast

HIG        Hartford Financial Services











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TW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TW  Tradeweb Markets (0.82)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (0.81)


ECL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ECL  Ecolab (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HIG



ADBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADBE  Adobe (0.03)


ADI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADI  Analog Devices (-0.03)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.03)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.03)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HIG



ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (-0.71)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.71)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.73)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.74)


CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (-0.77)









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