Bullish Case: Hormel Foods benefits from a rebound in consumer demand and effective operational strategies, driving stock prices above recent lows. This could lead to strong performance going into 2025.

Bearish Case: Continued labor unrest and underperformance in domestic sales may weigh heavily on HRL's stock, causing prices to further decline as market confidence wanes.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of a strong Q4 recovery due to improved sales.

2. 30% chance of ongoing labor issues leading to operational disruptions.

3. 20% chance of market stabilization around current levels.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish credit spread by selling HRL's $30.0 put and buying $29.0 put, leveraging high implied volatility. Focus on short-dated options to capture premiums and limit downside in case of a downturn. Expect a robust 37% return with positive edge and high probability of profit due to favorable market conditions.

November 14, 2024