HRL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Hormel Foods (HRL) may rebound due to increased advertising spend and potential recovery in retail sales, coupled with strong brand equity. Call options indicate bullish sentiment, especially with recent price support around $31.5.


Bearish Case: Ongoing operational challenges in the turkey segment and declining revenues may pressure HRL stock further. High implied volatility suggests investor caution, indicating potential for continued bearish sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Retail sales recovery boosts HRL stock (40%).

2. Operational issues lead to further revenue declines (45%).

3. Market responds positively to enhanced ad spend, stabilizing stocks (15%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by buying HRL 09/20/2024 35.00 C (implied volatility 24.7) and selling HRL 08/02/2024 37.00 C (implied volatility 73.2). This captures premium decay while leveraging potential recovery, maintaining a favorable risk-reward profile.


July 25, 2024


Hormel Foods Forecast

HRL      Hormel Foods











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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.24)


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LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.51)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HRL



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.22)





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