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Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: HST benefits from a recovering travel industry, with increased occupancy rates and strategic acquisitions boosting profitability. Implied volatility backwardation suggests potential positive price movement.



Bearish Case: Economic headwinds, such as rising interest rates and inflation, pose risks to HST’s recovery, dampening travel demand and occupancy rates. Historical returns indicate high volatility and potential downside.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: Price stabilizes around $15 with mild growth as travel demand recovers.
  • 25%: Price declines to $13 due to economic pressures.
  • 15%: Price rebounds above $17 if market conditions improve.


May 21, 2025


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