Bullish Case: HST's recent operational performance and increased travel demand invigorate investor confidence. The implied volatility suggests potential upward price action, and positive sentiment could push shares toward $20.75 as the travel sector rebounds.

Bearish Case: Economic downturns and rising interest rates hamper travel demand, maintaining pressure on HST's performance. Market volatility persists, signaling risks of a price pullback closer to $15 as uncertainty looms, especially under a potential recession scenario.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 50% chance: Price rebounds to $20+ backed by strong Q4 earnings.

2) 30% chance: Price stagnates around $17 due to market uncertainties.

3) 20% chance: Price drops below $15 due to macroeconomic downturns.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish short volatility strategy: sell 3 $18 call options (delta: 0.32), buy 4 $19 calls (delta: 0.09) expiring in 35 days. Positive edge with 87% odds of profit, potentially realizing a 22% return. This capitalizes on current low volatility with minimal risk exposure while positioning for market movements.

November 17, 2024