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HST Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A post-pandemic travel boom alongside operational improvements could propel HST above $20, boosted by strategic investments and favorable market sentiment for hospitality REITs in recovery.



Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties, including high inflation and interest rates, may dampen travel demand, forcing HST's price below $15 as revenue struggles under increased operational costs and lower occupancy rates.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 50%: HST approaches or exceeds $20 driven by increased travel demand.
  • 30%: Stagnation around $17 due to ongoing market volatility.
  • 20%: Drop below $15 from economic downturns impacting occupancy rates.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy by executing a call spread. Buy the $19.00 call and sell the $20.00 call, targeting earnings reports. This leverages potential upward price movement, focusing on higher implied volatility for December 2024 options, maximizing risk-reward with positive alpha.


December 19, 2024


Host Hotels & Resorts Forecast

HST        Host Hotels & Resorts

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CBRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBRL  Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HST


TNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNK  Teekay Tankers (0.0)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.0)


CAPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAPR  Capricor Therapeutics (0.01)


SBUX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBUX  Starbucks (0.01)


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HST


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.74)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.76)


HUMA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUMA  Humacyte (-0.76)


HRB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRB  H&R Block (-0.76)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.82)







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