IEI Forecast


Bullish Case: With implied volatility decreasing over time, and historical patterns showing recovery potential after price drops, there’s a strong likelihood of bullish momentum returning, especially if interest rates stabilize or decline.


Bearish Case: The current flat performance coupled with increased put option volumes suggests bearish sentiment may dominate, supported by ongoing economic uncertainty and potential interest rate hikes that could hinder bond prices.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Interest rate cuts - 25%;

2. Geopolitical tensions raising Treasury demand - 15%;

3. Economic recession leading to safety flight - 20%;

4. Continued rate hikes - 25%;

5. Persistently high inflation - 15%.


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July 25, 2024


BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Forecast

IEI      BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IEI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.28)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.33)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IEI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.28)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.33)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.42)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IEI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.28)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.33)





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