FAST Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Increased non-residential construction activity can spur demand, alongside stable or rising dividends, which may boost investor confidence and stock price.




Bearish Case: Persistent inflation and high interest rates could hinder construction spending, negatively impacting Fastenal’s revenues and leading to potential stock depreciation.




Potential Outcomes:

1. (40%) Non-residential construction accelerates, driving up demand and stock price.

2. (30%) Continued economic weakness leads to stagnant performance.

3. (20%) Stock suffers sharp decline due to unforeseen market shocks.

4. (10%) Surprise earnings announcement positively influences market sentiment and price.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish credit spread strategy: Sell 1 $77.5 strike put and buy 2 $75 strike puts expiring in 28 days. This has a 77% Helium odds of profit, balancing return and risk as current volatility favors stable price action. Ideal for maintaining exposure with reduced risk.



October 20, 2024


Fastenal Forecast

FAST        Fastenal











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FAST



BLDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLDR  Builders Firstsource (0.92)


AGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGO  Assured Guaranty (0.9)


CP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CP  Canadian Pacific Railway (0.88)


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (0.86)


HII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HII  Huntington Ingalls Industries (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FAST



SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (0.0)


OHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OHI  Omega Healthcare Investors (-0.0)


DNUT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNUT  Krispy Kreme (-0.0)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.0)


FLYW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLYW  Flywire (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FAST



HLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HLF  Herbalife Nutrition (-0.68)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.71)


FLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNG  Flex Lng (-0.72)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.73)


EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.75)









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