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IEP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The recent increase in call option volume suggests optimism and potential for strategic restructuring by Icahn, possibly boosting IEP's price.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty about IEP's future, coupled with ongoing legal challenges and declining historical returns, signaling potential downside risk.

Potential Outcomes: IEP recovery due to activist restructuring (25%), persistent legal challenges hindering progress (40%), continued stagnation (35%).

Trading Oracle: Utilize a Bullish Long Volatility strategy by buying $12.5 calls and selling $20 calls. This capitalizes on call volume surge and possible restructuring upside: Bullish Long Volatility.

March 05, 2025

Icahn Forecast

IEP Icahn

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IEP

DVN Devon Energy (0.95)

COTY Coty (0.94)

GES Guess (0.94)

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (0.93)

DOW Dow (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IEP

RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (0.0)

PHM PulteGroup (-0.0)

LHX L3Harris (-0.0)

TSN Tyson Foods (0.01)

APPF Appfolio (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IEP

SAP Sap SE (-0.91)

ONON On (-0.91)

CHWY Chewy (-0.91)

ALLT Allot (-0.91)

VIRT Virtu Financial (-0.92)

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