LYB Forecast


Bullish Case: Solid stock fundamentals and recovery from recent dips. Positive sentiment from new recycling partnerships supports a long-term bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: Negative price action and insider sales indicate cautious investor sentiment; significant mean reversion suggests limited upside.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Upside realization with a 40% chance due to institutional support.

2. Mean reversion/neutral performance at 35% from volume metrics and historical data.

3. Downside at 25% due to insider sales and bearish sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Given flat term structure and low implied volatility discrepancies, favor bullish short put spreads. Sell $90 put, buy $85 put expiring in ~90 days. Optimized for high probability-of-profit and medium risk-reward ratio.


July 10, 2024


LyondellBasell Industries Forecast

LYB      LyondellBasell Industries











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LYB



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.66)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LYB



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.47)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.66)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LYB



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.66)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)





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