VIRT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Virtu's role in stabilizing volatile markets and the potential tailwinds from algorithmic trading support price recovery.




Bearish Case: Legal issues and flat implied volatility indicate risk, possibly limiting price growth amidst uncertain sentiment.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Increased trading volume boosts performance (40%).
  2. Legal challenges hinder growth (30%).
  3. Strategic partnerships drive modest gains (30%).




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread: sell VIRT $40 call and buy $45 call, expiring in ~57 days. High market and Helium probability of profit at 76% with positive edge and annual potential return of 22%.



December 27, 2024


Virtu Financial Forecast

VIRT        Virtu Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VIRT



CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.97)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (0.96)


AGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGX  Argan (0.95)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (0.95)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VIRT



INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.0)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.0)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.01)


REGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REGN  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (0.01)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VIRT



APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.91)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.93)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.93)









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