IG Forecast


Bullish Case: The historical performance indicates resilience in price returns, especially over longer holding periods, with notable likelihoods of positive returns in favorable macroeconomic scenarios. Improved AI efficiencies and corporate earnings could enhance demand for IG assets, driving appreciation.


Bearish Case: Current trends show volatility and risks tied to regulatory pressures and environmental issues affecting corporate performance. A sustained negative sentiment in the market could lead to further declines in IG prices, supported by potential liquidity concerns.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory scrutiny impacts tech earnings (-21% likelihood).

2. AI integration boosts efficiency (+50% likelihood).

3. Continued environmental challenges drag performance (-29% likelihood).

4. Macroeconomic stability enhances confidence (+30% likelihood).


Trading Oracle: Pursue a Helium Long Volatility strategy using debit spreads targeting mid-term gains from AI-driven corporate efficiencies. Given the current environment, the focus should be on capturing volatility spikes. Time horizon: 6 months to 1 year, with an emphasis on high reward:risk ratios.


July 26, 2024


Principal Investment Grade Corporate Forecast

IG      Principal Investment Grade Corporate











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IG



BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BND  Vanguard Total Bond Market (0.99)


VCLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VCLT  Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (0.99)


XLRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLRE  Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (0.92)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.91)


FOUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOUR  Shift4 Payments (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IG



EBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EBS  Emergent Biosolutions (0.0)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.0)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (0.0)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.0)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IG



SARK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SARK  Tuttle Capital Short Innovation (-0.81)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.9)


REK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REK  ProShares Short Real Estate (-0.91)





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