Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Incyte's promising pipeline, particularly the recent FDA approvals, alongside strong sales of Jakafi and Opzelura, suggests a potential upward momentum in stock value, especially if operational costs stabilize.

Bearish Case: Concerns about rising operational expenses and the impending patent expiration of Jakafi in 2028, coupled with recent trial challenges, could dampen investor confidence and lead to stock price declines.

Potential Outcomes:

• Positive FDA approvals boost stock (40% chance)
• Operational costs hinder profitability (30% chance)
• Pipeline candidates face setbacks (20% chance)
• Market volatility impacts performance (10% chance)

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a **bullish long volatility strategy**. Buy $70.00 calls and sell $80.00 calls expiring in ~30 days, optimizing for near-term upside growth with potential returns up to 514%. Monitor volatility and FDA timelines closely for adjustments.

December 19, 2024