Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: INSW displays overall resilience; strong fundamentals with improving oil demand and lower supply constraints suggest potential for price gains. Positive sentiment from historical performance boosts expectations.

Bearish Case: Higher volatility and insider selling raise significant risks. Ongoing geopolitical tensions may disrupt oil transport, impacting earnings adversely. The market is wary as put options exceed calls, indicating bearish sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued operational success leading to a price rise (30%).

2. Geopolitical event negatively impacts oil shipping (20%).

3. Sustained market rotation away from energy stocks (20%).

4. Increased insider selling exacerbates price drop (15%).

5. Unexpected regulatory changes yield a negative impact (15%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish strategy using a credit spread by selling 3 $40 Puts and buying 2 $35 Puts, leveraging volatility divergence. Favorably priced, target December expiry with a high probability for profit, estimating gains of 1149% based on implied volatility trends.

November 19, 2024