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IPGP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: IPGP's leadership in fiber lasers, potential growth in EV and renewable energy sectors, and strong call option interest suggest bullish potential.

Bearish Case: Intense competition, supply chain issues, and declining price action indicate a bearish outlook. High implied volatility also suggests potential downside risk.

Potential Outcomes: High chance (65%) of rangebound trading due to mean reversion. 20% probability of a breakout above $75 if positive news emerges. 15% chance of further decline below $60.

Trading Oracle: Utilize a bear call credit spread with the IPGP $75/$85 strikes expiring in ~157 days, given current dissatisfaction and mean reversion potential. Position aligns with backwardation and high volatility signals, offering a 73% probability of profit. Capture premium by shorting volatility.

February 12, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IPGP

TREX TREX Co. (0.86)

CRSR Corsair Gaming (0.85)

DIN Dine Brands (0.84)

LSCC Lattice Semiconductor (0.83)

TRIP TripAdvisor (0.83)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IPGP

OLED Universal Display (0.0)

ARKK ARK Innovation (-0.0)

SKYT SkyWater Technology (-0.01)

MFA MFA Financial (-0.01)

VTRS Viatris (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IPGP

FE Firstenergy (-0.74)

AFL Aflac (-0.75)

LTH Life Time (-0.76)

SO Southern (-0.76)

CDNA Caredx (-0.8)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.