IPO Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Despite recent flat price action, high implied volatility suggests potential for a rebound. Historical return surfaces indicate likelihood of long-term gains, supported by strong investor interest and social media optimism.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates substantial market uncertainty. Combined with recent flat performance and economic challenges like tariffs, this raises risks of further declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Stabilization and moderate recovery due to historical trends (35%).
  2. Continued decline due to current uncertainties (35%).
  3. Volatility-driven short-term spike (20%).
  4. Gradual long-term gain (10%).



April 06, 2025


Renaissance IPO Forecast

IPO        Renaissance IPO











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IPO



SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.94)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.93)


VB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VB  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (0.93)


GKOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GKOS  Glaukos (0.91)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IPO



TXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXT  Textron (-0.0)


CDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDW  CDW (-0.0)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (-0.0)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.0)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IPO



UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.62)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.65)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.69)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.7)


SPDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPDN  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares (-0.92)









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