BEN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Franklin Resources, despite historical underperformance, shows signs of stability with increased AUM and strategic acquisitions, aligning with a potential recovery. Upcoming earnings reports could exceed low expectations, triggering upward investor sentiment.


Bearish Case: Persistently high operational costs and a shift to passive investments may continue to suppress BEN’s profitability and stock performance, reflected in low market confidence and deteriorating historical returns, which could limit upside potential.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Earnings reports beat expectations (40% chance).

2) Continued declines in AUM due to market shifts (30% chance).

3) Strategic M&A boosts stock value (20% chance).

4) Negative macroeconomic news impacts volatility (10% chance).


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread, buying $25.00 call options and selling $27.50 calls, targeting ~113 days to expiration. This strategy takes advantage of potential upward volatility while managing downside risk, with favorable Helium volatility indications enhancing profit potential.


July 26, 2024


Franklin Resources Forecast

BEN      Franklin Resources











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BEN



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.3)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BEN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BEN



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.3)





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