IVV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: IVV's historical returns favor positive future returns, with the likelihood of continued gains. Helium's bullish risk outweighs bearish risk by 61%. Even with flat recent price action, the term structure shows potential stability and growth.


Bearish Case: Higher implied volatility in short-term options suggests potential uncertainty. Notable recent corrections and a significant volume of put options indicate market caution. The term structure indicates increased market fear, hinting at possible declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued modest growth (40%): Fueled by economic resilience.

2) Shallow correction (35%): Due to profit-taking and macro concerns.

3) Market rally continuation (25%): Driven by dovish Fed and strong earnings.


Trading Oracle: Sell a short-term call credit spread (Helium short volatility). Sell the $550 strike call and buy the $559 strike call, expiring in ~7 days. Aligns with bearish volatility and Helium’s profitable models. 89% probability of profit and high reward:risk.


June 30, 2024


BTC iShares Core S&P 500 Forecast

IVV      BTC iShares Core S&P 500











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IVV



SPLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLG  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (1.0)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (1.0)


VTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTI  Vanguard Total Stock Market (1.0)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (1.0)


UPRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UPRO  ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (1.0)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IVV



SMPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMPL  Simply Good Foods (0.0)


CFLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFLT  Confluent (-0.01)


CRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRI  Carters (0.01)


RH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RH  RH - (-0.01)


HR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HR  Healthcare Realty Trust (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVV



VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.97)


TECS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECS  Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.99)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-1.0)





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