Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: JHG's recent launch of active ETFs and sustained positive net flows can drive demand, potentially boosting stock prices as investor sentiment improves.

Bearish Case: Rising corporate defaults and competition in the asset management sector might undermine JHG’s stability, leading to a decline in stock prices amidst broader market vulnerabilities.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40%: Improved net inflows due to active ETF expansion.
2. 30%: Rising defaults negatively impact asset management firms.
3. 20%: Strategic missteps in market positioning hinder growth.
4. 10%: Unexpected economic downturn causes widespread selling pressure.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread with Jan 2025 JHG options, targeting a strike around $45. The high implied volatility suggests capturing upside potential, leveraging expected positive movement from ETF launches. Adjust positions as market conditions evolve, particularly around earnings reports.

December 19, 2024