KOLD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: A potential bullish case emerges from the increased demand for natural gas due to cold weather, paired with 23% higher bullish risk over bearish across all tenors and a forecasted 0.82% price increase.




Bearish Case: KOLD's historical mean reversion and significant long-term declines (82.4% over ten years) persist. A flat term structure suggests limited upside despite short-term volatility forecasts.




Potential Outcomes: 40% probability of mean reversion given historical trends; 30% chance of cold weather demand spiking prices; 30% risk of volatility-driven declines, reflecting helium-market discrepancies.




Trading Oracle: Implement a short-term bullish debit spread: Buy $45 call, sell $47 call within 15 days. This captures upside while managing risk, leveraging the 3% volatility gap advantage for a potential return of 204%.



January 04, 2025


ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas Forecast

KOLD        ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KOLD



ODFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODFL  Old Dominion Freight Line (0.82)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (0.73)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (0.72)


OPCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPCH  Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.7)


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KOLD



TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.01)


HES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HES  Hess (0.01)


WEAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WEAT  Teucrium Wheat (-0.01)


BATRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BATRK  Liberty Media Corp. (Tracking Stock - Braves) Series C (-0.01)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KOLD



BBAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAR  BBVA Argentina (-0.58)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (-0.63)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.63)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.63)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.72)









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