KOLD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Helium AI predicts a 2.08% price increase and bullish risk is 86% more than bearish, suggesting potential for a rebound, especially if cold weather spikes natural gas demand.




Bearish Case: Despite short-term bullish signals, KOLD's historical trend is overwhelmingly negative, with a 97% decline from five years ago, illustrating persistent downside risk.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. 50% chance of bearish trend continuation due to historical declines.
  2. 30% chance of short-term bullish momentum from AI forecast.
  3. 20% chance of volatility driving unexpected outcomes.




Trading Oracle: Consider Bearish Long Volatility: Buy OOTM put options, sell fewer further OOTM puts. This strategy aligns with long-term bearish trends and elevated short-term implied volatility, offering potential for high-reward scenarios.



March 20, 2025


ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas Forecast

KOLD        ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KOLD



LEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEG  Leggett & Platt (0.77)


TXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXT  Textron (0.7)


SJM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SJM  J.M. Smucker (0.68)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (0.63)


FMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FMC  FMC (0.63)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KOLD



KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.0)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (0.0)


SG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SG  Sweetgreen (-0.0)


BBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBY  Best Buy (-0.01)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KOLD



BBAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAR  BBVA Argentina (-0.61)


EAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EAT  Brinker International (-0.62)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.63)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (-0.63)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.73)









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