Bullish Case: The mean-reverting price pattern and rising demand for streaming services can support a price rebound, especially when coupled with strategic media rights efforts.

Bearish Case: The high put option volatility and negative price trend suggest market skepticism. Regulatory risks and competitive pressures could further depress prices.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance: Regulatory changes positively impact broadband expansion.
• 40% chance: Continued market stagnation owing to competitive pressures.
• 30% chance: Significant downside if economic downturns persist.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish strategy focused on short-term credit spreads involving $50-$55 puts. The high implied volatility favors capitalizing on premium collection while managing downside risks. Alternatively, cautiously bullish call spreads at $80-$85 could benefit from a rebound if sentiment shifts. Maintain positions for 30-60 days to capitalize on premium decay.

January 22, 2025