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LOB Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Increased small business optimism and robust SBA lending growth could buoy Live Oak Bancshares, fostering a positive outlook. Short-term price recovery is likely if institutional confidence strengthens.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility, particularly in puts, suggests caution, aligned with recent price declines. Concerns over rising default rates in SBA loans could hinder LOB's stability and growth.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Institutional buying sparks rise (40%).

2. Insider selling weakens price (30%).

3. Continued flat action due to macro conditions (30%).



Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish debit spread: Buy June $35 Calls, Sell June $40 Calls. Target improved SBA lending and positive sentiment. Monitor for breakout, leveraging higher implied volatility for a favorable risk-reward setup.


January 26, 2025


Live Oak Bancshares Forecast

LOB        Live Oak Bancshares

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