Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Dorian LPG could benefit from rising global LPG demand, favorable fleet expansions, and potential recovery in pricing post-market adjustments. Recent social media sentiment indicates a mixture of optimism, supporting a price rebound. Market indicators suggest bullish volatility patterns, enhancing trading opportunities.

Bearish Case: Volatility remains high with implied risks, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties and an inventory glut which could suppress prices. Recent trends indicate market apathy towards LPG, failing to stimulate investor confidence or significant price movements, suggesting downside risks loom.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of a gradual price recovery, driven by demand resurgence.
• 40% chance of extended volatility and bearish price pressure from external shocks.
• 30% chance of continued stagnation with market uncertainties.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying the $25 call and selling the $27 call expiring within 30 days. This strategy capitalizes on the current elevated implied volatility and potential upside, while managing risk effectively. Maintain a neutral stance on time outlook, focusing on capturing short-term gains from volatility increases.

December 19, 2024