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LUV Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Recent restructuring efforts and rising demand in peak travel seasons may offer a rebound. LUV could capitalize on operational improvements and new market opportunities.



Bearish Case: Operational and regulatory challenges continue to pose risks. Legal issues and public relations mishaps can hinder a recovery, impacting the stock negatively.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 50% chance of gradual recovery from restructuring benefits.
  2. 30% risk of further depreciation due to regulatory and operational issues.
  3. 20% potential for minor gains from strategic market expansions.



Trading Oracle: Implement a short-term neutral volatility strategy with a straddle on LUV, centered around the $30 strike. Implied volatilities indicate potential movements both upward from restructuring benefits and downward due to persisting challenges. Expiry target: April 2025 for capturing near-term volatility shifts.


February 25, 2025


Southwest Airlines Forecast

LUV        Southwest Airlines

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LUV


FND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FND  Floor & Decor (-0.0)


CPA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPA  Copa (0.01)


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (-0.01)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.01)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LUV


TNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNK  Teekay Tankers (-0.75)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (-0.77)


CRON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRON  Cronos (-0.77)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.77)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.82)







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