LYB Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: LYB's focus on sustainability and infrastructure projects offers growth potential, leveraging potential market disruptions and long-term demand increases.




Bearish Case: Significant price drop and high implied volatility suggest potential downside amid economic uncertainties and LYB's exposure to volatile commodity markets.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Price Drop (50%): Economic headwinds impact price.
  2. Stabilization (30%): Mean-reversion observed.
  3. Minor Upside (20%): Sustainability initiatives gain traction.




Trading Oracle: Trading Oracle: Engage in a Bullish Short Volatility strategy, selling closer ATM put options and buying more OOTM puts. The flat volatility term structure and current downward trend suggest high-probability premium capture. Leverage this strategy to capitalize on potential market stability amidst high uncertainty.



April 10, 2025


LyondellBasell Industries Forecast

LYB        LyondellBasell Industries











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