Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: LYB displays potential for appreciation due to recent support in institutional buying, alongside a favorable implied volatility structure suggesting upcoming positive movements as infrastructure demand grows.

Bearish Case: Market uncertainties and a declining trend could pressure LYB's stock price, compounded by elevated implied volatility that indicates potential downside risks as overall market sentiment shifts negatively.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increases due to infrastructure growth (40%);

2. Stability as market sentiment neutralizes fluctuations (25%);

3. Price decline amidst economic headwinds (30%);

4. Unexpected volatility spike (5%).

Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish strategy by employing a debit spread, buying 1 $90 call and selling 1 $95 call, capitalizing on implied volatility mismatches. Anticipate about 70% odds of profit leveraging recent pricing support and substantial bullish overlay from institutional interest.

November 03, 2024