LYB Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong fundamentals, positive institutional backing, and flat short-term volatility support a potential price recovery for LYB.




Bearish Case: Economic headwinds and regulatory risks persist, coupled with elevated implied volatility suggesting potential downside.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Upside (40%): Institutional backing supports upward movement.
  • Downside (35%): Economic factors weigh heavily.
  • Stable (20%): Mixed signals lead to neutrality.
  • Volatility (5%): Unexpected events cause swings.




Trading Oracle:
Gameplan: Engage in a Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Sell ATM put options, buy OOTM put options. The flat term structure and VI discrepancies provide an attractive risk/reward with high probability of premium retention.



March 16, 2025


LyondellBasell Industries Forecast

LYB        LyondellBasell Industries











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LYB



COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (0.0)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (-0.01)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.02)


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AMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMT  American Tower (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LYB



CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.89)


BCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCS  Barclays (-0.89)


TGTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGTX  TG Therapeutics (-0.9)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.9)


SAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAP  Sap SE (-0.91)









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