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MGM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: MGM's positive sentiment from post-COVID recovery, increased live events, and strategic expansions like Osaka could drive revenue growth (Helium).



Bearish Case: High debt levels and economic uncertainty may dampen recovery prospects for MGM, alongside potential headwinds from increased competition and regulatory changes (Helium).



Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful Osaka resort project boosts revenue (65%).

2) Economic downturn impacts tourism (25%).

3) Regulatory hurdles limit growth (10%). (Helium)



Trading Oracle: Sell short volatility via put spreads with a 25-day horizon. Sell $34 puts, buy $32 puts. Exploit low implied volatility for a high probability of profit near 75%, leveraging Helium's positive edge model. Medium-term, short volatility strategy suits current optimism ().


December 26, 2024


MGM Resorts International Forecast

MGM        MGM Resorts International

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LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.8)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.8)


TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (0.79)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MGM


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.0)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.01)


IGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGM  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech Sector (0.01)


APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (-0.02)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MGM


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (-0.76)


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (-0.77)


FRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRPT  Freshpet (-0.77)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.78)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.78)







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