MGPI Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: The premium segment's growth trajectory bolstered by strategic initiatives could propel MGPI's stock upward. Improved supply chains and recovery sentiments in the spirits market are also optimistic indicators for a rebound.




Bearish Case: Ongoing macroeconomic challenges and poor Q3 performance raise doubts about MGPI's recovery. Coupled with the implications of distillery closures, the stock might face further declines, especially if the spirits market remains sluggish.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Ongoing premium segment growth (35%)
  • Continued negative impact from distillery closures (45%)
  • Sector-wide earnings effects broadly impacting sentiment (20%)
  • Recovery in spirits market (30%)
  • Weak demand persists (25%)




Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish debit spread by purchasing 1 $40.00 put option (implied vol: 31.2%) while selling 1 $35.00 put option, given a spike in market volatility. Target with a potential return of 249%, improving risk-reward characteristics. Focus on a 30-day to 60-day outlook to optimize profit chances.



December 21, 2024


MGP Ingredients Forecast

MGPI        MGP Ingredients











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