MLI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: MLI shows long-term price appreciation despite short-term volatility. Mean-reversion suggests potential for recovery. Low P/E ratio and recent acquisition point to undervaluation and growth.


Bearish Case: Consistent insider selling and higher-than-market implied volatility indicate negative sentiment. Recent price action reflects a downward trend and market skepticism toward MLI's prospects.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Housing demand drives growth (30%).

2. Commodity price drops impact earnings (40%).

3. Acquisition propels value (15%).

4. Continued insider selling triggers decline (15%).


Trading Oracle: Trade the near-term volatility while considering Helium's higher volatility forecast. Execute a bear put spread: buy the $50 put and sell the $45 put, expiring in September, to capitalize on downside risk with managed cost. This approach benefits from high volatility and potential drops, providing a high reward-to-risk ratio.


June 27, 2024


Mueller Industries Forecast

MLI      Mueller Industries











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