Bullish Case: If market conditions improve and historical price reversion holds, MSM could see upward pressure, especially with potential positive news or earnings, supporting a bullish outlook in the near term.

Bearish Case: Continued economic headwinds and poor earnings forecasts may trigger a downturn. Market volatility remains high, increasing the risk of declines in MSM's price performance in the coming months.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of range-bound trading around $84.2.

2. 35% chance for a bullish rebound on positive earnings.

3. 25% risk of downside movement driven by economic data or missed earnings, with significant volatility shown in options.

Trading Oracle: Engage a credit spread strategy: sell $90 calls and buy $95 calls, targeting a time profile expiring in ~28 days. Expect high probability of profit with market odds favoring this approach; quick profit potential should volatility decrease. Maintain flexibility for adjustments based on earnings data.

October 20, 2024