Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: NMR could surge as Nomura's strategic crypto initiatives and solid domestic performance elevate investor confidence, buoyed by favorable historical returns exceeding +30% over 2-year periods according to return data.

Bearish Case: Persistent downward pressure from regulatory scrutiny and global market volatility could hinder NMR's growth; historical data indicates a significant likelihood of negative returns within 1-2 years during adverse conditions.

Potential Outcomes:

1. (40%) Successful crypto ventures boost share price.

2. (30%) Regulatory issues impede gains.

3. (20%) Continued stagnation in market returns due to volatility.

4. (10%) Unexpected positive earnings result in price recovery.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long debit spread by buying January 2025 10.00 C calls, selling January 2025 7.50 C calls. This leverages positive market sentiment with minimized risk. Aim for a short-term outlook as NMR's initiatives unfold post-earnings, capitalizing on expected upside.

November 24, 2024