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CAT Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Caterpillar is poised for growth driven by infrastructure investments and strong earnings. Favorable volatility conditions, with recent earnings beats and dividend increases, bolster investor confidence and signal upside potential.



Bearish Case: Caterpillar faces risks from cyclical downturns and high valuation concerns. A flat historical return surface and backwardation in option term structure suggest caution, with potential for price corrections due to market volatility.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: Growth from infrastructure spending.
  • 30%: Market correction due to economic uncertainty.
  • 10%: External shocks causing price dips.


June 20, 2025


Caterpillar Forecast

CAT        Caterpillar

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