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W Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Wayfair's strategic cost-cutting and physical store expansion could boost profitability. Stable implied volatility and positive sentiment around demand improvements, especially in niche markets, support a potential upside.

Bearish Case: High volatility and historical losses indicate ongoing financial struggles. The underperformance compared to SPY volatility emphasizes potential declines, especially with economic pressures and market share loss to competitors.

Potential Outcomes: Growth through strategic expansion and partnerships (30%). Cost-cutting inefficiencies lead to decline (50%). Seasonal demand spikes sustain stability (20%).

March 16, 2025

Wayfair Forecast

W Wayfair

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with W

PPG PPG Industries (0.82)

HUN Huntsman (0.81)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (0.8)

HST Host Hotels & Resorts (0.78)

DOW Dow (0.78)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to W

ROST Ross Stores (0.0)

ULCC Frontier (-0.01)

AEHR Aehr Test Systems (-0.01)

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (-0.01)

CAT Caterpillar (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against W

CWAN Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.67)

TGTX TG Therapeutics (-0.68)

PNW Pinnacle West (-0.68)

PM Philip Morris International (-0.73)

PPC Pilgrim's Pride (-0.75)

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