NOA Forecast


Bullish Case: Continued revenue growth from acquisitions and operational efficiencies, coupled with geographic diversification, positions NOA for sustained upside.


Bearish Case: High debt servicing costs and declining operational margins could strain cash flow, leading to financial instability and downward pressure on stock price.


Potential Outcomes: Possible outcomes include:

1. Ongoing revenue growth (50%).

2. Financial strain from high leverage (30%).

3. Market expansion boosts valuation (20%).


Trading Oracle: Given mean reversion and high implied volatility, a bullish call debit spread is favorable. Buy 20.00 C and sell 25.00 C for Aug 2024 expiry. This captures the potential upside with managed risk. Positive edge and high reward:risk ratio.


July 16, 2024


North American Construction Forecast

NOA      North American Construction











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NOA



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.4)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.03)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.17)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NOA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.03)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.17)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.48)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NOA



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.4)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.03)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.17)





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