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NOA Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Increased infrastructure projects and geographical diversification fuel NOA’s growth potential. Ongoing government spending initiatives bolster this outlook.



Bearish Case: High debt levels and rising interest rates could threaten NOA's financial stability. Market skepticism adds pressure to short-term performance.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued revenue growth post-acquisition (60%).

2. Financial strain from high leverage (30%).

3. Expansion into new markets boosts performance (10%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish call debit spread by buying NOA 20.00 C and selling 25.00 C, targeting a May 2025 expiration. This strategy leverages potential upside amid sector growth and manages risk from volatility. The high implied volatility suggests capturing premium is advantageous, offering a strong reward:risk ratio.


January 30, 2025


North American Construction Forecast

NOA        North American Construction

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NOA


LSCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LSCC  Lattice Semiconductor (0.82)


ZD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZD  Ziff Davis (0.8)


MTN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTN  Vail Resorts (0.79)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.76)


PLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLAB  Photronics (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NOA


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (-0.01)


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (0.01)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.01)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.02)


FMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FMC  FMC (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NOA


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (-0.73)


INSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSG  Inseego (-0.75)


IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.76)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.77)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.85)







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