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NVS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent FDA approvals, a strong pipeline, and a substantial U.S. investment drive potential growth. Implied volatility term structure suggests potential stability and a bullish risk profile supports optimism.

Bearish Case: Patent expirations, ongoing legal challenges, and competitive pressures may hinder earnings. Backwardation in the term structure suggests near-term uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes: FDA approvals enhance growth (60%)
Legal/patent challenges limit gains (30%)
Unexpected market pressures (10%)

May 10, 2025

Novartis Forecast

NVS Novartis

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NVS

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FRSH Freshworks (-0.72)

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