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NVS Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Novartis's strategic acquisitions, strong earnings, and promising radiopharmaceutical pipeline could drive long-term growth. The stable implied volatility and mean-reverting price action support gradual upward movement.



Bearish Case: Ongoing legal disputes and competition from generics, alongside recent volatility spikes, could hinder NVS's growth. The backwardation in implied volatility term structure indicates potential near-term downside.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: Successful drug launches boost share price.
  • 25%: Legal/regulatory setbacks impact growth.
  • 15%: Competitive pressures and volatility cause price declines.


March 15, 2025


Novartis Forecast

NVS        Novartis

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MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NVS


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