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NVS Forecast

Bullish Case: Novartis's expanded pipeline, including Scemblix and new acquisitions, enhances growth potential despite flat volatility term structure.

Bearish Case: Ongoing patent disputes and development setbacks are risks amid high volatility and low trading volume, potentially curbing growth.

Potential Outcomes: 60% success in commercializing new drugs, boosting financials. 30% chance legal/patent disputes stall growth. 10% risks from Phase 2 trial failures.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by buying NVS $100 calls and selling $110 calls expiring in April 2025. This captures potential upside from positive drug news while managing risks with defined losses amid a stable IV environment.

December 28, 2024

Novartis Forecast

NVS Novartis

Price Forecast
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Assets that tend to move strongly with NVS

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NNN National Retail Properties (0.79)

KO Coca-Cola (0.78)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NVS

ACN Accenture (0.0)

CAT Caterpillar (0.0)

QRVO Qorvo (-0.01)

SLS SELLAS Life Sciences (0.01)

JOBY Joby Aviation (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NVS

NICE NICE (-0.73)

LAC Lithium Americas (-0.74)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.76)

TREX TREX Co. (-0.77)

BITO ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (-0.89)

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