Bullish Case: A potential positive shift in consumer demand or successful product launches could boost NVST's recovery, leveraging its strong historical mean reversion and low price-to-book ratio.

Bearish Case: Continued downward pressures from negative sentiment, high options trading volume, and potential unfavorable earnings may exacerbate NVST's decline, supported by historical findings of significant negative returns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued mean reversion (40%)

2. Further decline due to negative forecast (35%)

3. Bullish reversal from product success (25%), based on historical data and implied volatilities.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread strategy, selling NVST $20.00 call options while buying $22.50 call options with ~81% likelihood of profit. Alternatively, a bullish put spread leveraging low implied volatility could work, targeting a neutral or minor upside gain with potential high returns on risk.

October 26, 2024