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OGN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Anticipated positive news from FDA approvals coupled with successful product launches could significantly drive OGN's growth, supported by its strong dividend yield and improved investor sentiment.



Bearish Case: Persistent high debt and ongoing skepticism regarding growth prospects may undermine OGN’s stock performance, leading to potential further declines amidst a challenging market environment.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. FDA approval boosts OGN by 30% (50% chance).
  • 2. Continued debt issues lead to a -20% drop (40% chance).
  • 3. Stabilization attracts investors, leading to 10% growth (30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread by selling OGN $20.00 call and buying $22.50 call, leveraging high implied volatility for a strong probability of profit (~81%). Consider delta and risk management in light of existing debt levels and uncertainty.


December 14, 2024


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OGN        Organon

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