Bullish Case: Positive sentiment surrounds OTLK, driven by potential FDA approval of ONS-5010 and impending positive clinical trial results. Historical price return surfaces indicate a significant possibility of favorable gains in shorter holding periods.

Bearish Case: Regulatory delays and past failures dampen OTLK’s outlook, causing considerable investor anxiety. High debt levels and significant volatility leave room for steep declines in the price if FDA outcomes are unfavorable.

Potential Outcomes:

• FDA approval in Q4'24: 40%
• Successful clinical trial results: 50%
• Delays in regulatory approvals: 30%
• Continued financial strain: 40%
• Heightened market volatility: 50%

Trading Oracle: A bullish approach using a debit spread—buying OTLK 01/17/2025 2.50C at $0.10 while selling 5.00C at $0.30—captures potential upside from FDA approval while limiting downside risk. This strategy offers a high reward:risk and aligns with the market's expectation of heightened volatility and price fluctuations. Hold until the FDA decision for maximum alpha.

December 20, 2024