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PCAR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: PCAR's consistent demand for electric vehicles, robust earnings, and market positioning may drive near-term upside despite current volatility patterns.

Bearish Case: Recent price declines and high insider trading suggest potential mistrust and competitiveness issues, risking further downside in the medium term.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of moderate growth from EV market demand; 25% chance of further decline due to insider trading; 15% likelihood of price stabilization.

Trading Oracle: With current flat term structure and implied volatility higher than market, a Bullish Short Volatility strategy by selling puts and buying further OOTM puts is optimal, considering PCAR's robust demand and mean-reverting nature.

April 02, 2025

Paccar Forecast

PCAR Paccar

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCAR

TDOC Teladoc Health (0.78)

TTI Tetra Technologies (0.77)

PCOR Procore (0.75)

AME Ametek (0.73)

HUBS HubSpot (0.71)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCAR

TXT Textron (-0.0)

DKL Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (0.0)

ADM Archer Daniels Midland (0.01)

GROY Gold Royalty (-0.01)

ORI Old Republic International (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCAR

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.6)

TYD Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.6)

UL Unilever (-0.62)

YCL ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.63)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.69)

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