PCAR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: PCAR's consistent demand for electric vehicles, robust earnings, and market positioning may drive near-term upside despite current volatility patterns.




Bearish Case: Recent price declines and high insider trading suggest potential mistrust and competitiveness issues, risking further downside in the medium term.




Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of moderate growth from EV market demand; 25% chance of further decline due to insider trading; 15% likelihood of price stabilization.




Trading Oracle: With current flat term structure and implied volatility higher than market, a Bullish Short Volatility strategy by selling puts and buying further OOTM puts is optimal, considering PCAR's robust demand and mean-reverting nature.



April 02, 2025


Paccar Forecast

PCAR        Paccar











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCAR



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FRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRPT  Freshpet (-0.0)


BEKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEKE  KE (0.0)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCAR



MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.65)


LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (-0.66)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.69)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.7)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.72)









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