Bullish Case: Strong underlying sales growth and price increases driving revenues. Global footprint enabling growth across emerging and developed markets.


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Bearish Case: Reputational risks from continuing Russian operations amid Ukraine conflict. Potential backlash over employee conscription.


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Takeaway: Unilever faces uplift from sales growth but risks from controversial Russian operations. Pricing power and emerging market expansion are strengths, but geopolitics loom as a threat.


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Potential Outcomes:

1. Sustained revenue and profit growth from sales increases and pricing power (65% probability).

2. Reputational damage and sanctions risk from Russian presence (30% probability).

3. Market share gains in emerging markets like Asia and Latin America (55% probability).


September 27, 2023



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