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PMF Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: PMF's potential for mean reversion, supported by institutional stability, suggests upside possibilities if interest rates stabilize or decline. Historical support can catalyze recovery, boosted by its defensive appeal in uncertain markets.

Bearish Case: Continued high interest rates and municipal bond market risks may suppress PMF prices. Historical trends of negative returns with current mean-reverting behavior indicate limited upside, exacerbated by macroeconomic uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued mean reversion (+60%): 40% chance of recovery.

2. Decline due to rates (-30%): 30% chance.

3. Stabilization (+0%): 20% chance.

4. Volatility shift (+10%): 10% chance.

April 02, 2025

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