Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Implied volatility for POET options shows elevated levels, indicating potential for price movements driven by upcoming events. If cultural trends catalyze further demand, a bullish response is likely.

Bearish Case: Persistently high market uncertainty coupled with flat recent performance raises risks of downward pressure on prices. High implied volatility reflects a market expecting potential declines or stagnation.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased interest in AI and poetry elevates stock (40% chance).

2. Market corrections cause flat performance (30% chance).

3. Major partnerships drive prices upwards (25% chance).

4. Negative sentiment causes downturn (5% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider a long volatility strategy via a debit spread: buy December 2024 $4.00 calls while selling $6.00 calls. The high implied volatility suggests the potential for significant upward movements, while this spread contains risk. Maintain a bullish stance focusing on 1-3 month time horizons due to potential market catalysts.

November 13, 2024