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PROV Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Innovations like ProvXchange may capture growing markets. With a positive trend and institutional backing, there's potential for upward momentum.

Bearish Case: Historical trends reveal limited upside due to mean-reversion. Regulatory challenges and fintech competition could exacerbate struggles.

Potential Outcomes: Moderate increase (35%) if ProvXchange gains traction.
Price stagnation (45%) due to economic pressures.
Decline (20%) if regulatory issues deepen.

Trading Oracle: Implement a short volatility credit spread. Sell the $16 put and buy the $15 put expiring in one month. This capitalizes on expected price stability and mean-reversion, offering favorable risk/reward given historical patterns.

January 24, 2025

Provident Financial Holdings Forecast

PROV Provident Financial Holdings

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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TRV Travelers Companies (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PROV

DNN Denison Mines (-0.01)

CLB Core Laboratories (0.01)

ARKG ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (0.02)

DV DoubleVerify (0.02)

EH EHang Holdings Ltd - (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PROV

DVN Devon Energy (-0.83)

OGN Organon (-0.84)

ST Sensata (-0.84)

VAL Valaris (-0.88)

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (-0.89)

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