PSX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Phillips 66's strategic acquisitions and midstream expansion, combined with current undervaluation, suggest upside potential. Asset diversification reinforces resilience.




Bearish Case: Legal challenges and environmental fines could impact operations. High market volatility and declining refining margins present downside risks.




Potential Outcomes: Upside with strategic win (60%), stable from operational efficiency (20%), downside from regulatory hurdles (20%).




Trading Oracle: Leverage bullish short volatility: Sell Jan $110 puts and buy $105 puts, expiring in 38 days (71% Helium win odds) . This plays to the 13% bullish tenor preference and flat term structure—all profitable setups.



January 15, 2025


Phillips 66 Forecast

PSX        Phillips 66











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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PSX



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DEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DEI  Douglas Emmett (-0.77)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.81)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.83)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.84)









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