Bullish Case: Bullish sentiment for QuantumScape is driven by its potential solid-state battery breakthrough and strong partnerships (e.g., Volkswagen), combined with strategic leadership hires suggesting a path to commercialization. Metaculus 

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Prediction Market: Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030? 19%

Metaculus Bias

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Bearish Case: Concerns persist due to technical challenges, competition, and missed deadlines. High implied volatility and current stock decline suggest skepticism remains dominant, affecting investor confidence. Metaculus 

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Prediction Market: Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030? 19%

Metaculus Bias

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Potential Outcomes:

1. Breakthrough commercialization (20%).

2. Persistent challenges and stagnation (50%).

3. Partnerships boost progress (30%). These predictions consider past accuracy and current developments. Metaculus 

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Prediction Market: Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030? 19%

Metaculus Bias

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Trading Oracle: Adopt a cautious bearish strategy: engage in a credit spread by selling QS’s $5.5 strike calls and buying $6.0 calls with near-term expiration. This approach capitalizes on high implied volatility, aligns with current market sentiment, and leverages a high probability of profitability.

December 24, 2024