Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A rebound in QS occurs as market volatility dips while implied volatility remains elevated, signaling potential positive price movements ahead. Key partnerships may drive interest and confidence, leading to increased demand for call options.

Bearish Case: Continued technical challenges and high competition may result in stagnant price momentum, despite elevated volatility. Market skepticism could suppress upward movements, leading to potential sell-offs in both stock and options.

Potential Outcomes:

1. QS successfully overcomes technical challenges; 40% chance.

2. Increased competition leads to stagnant price; 35% chance.

3. Strategic partnerships propel growth; 15% chance.

4. Market sentiment shifts positively; 10% chance.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish short volatility credit spread strategy. Sell 6 $5.0 calls, buy 7 $5.5 calls with ~7 days to expiration, taking into account the 71% market odds of profit. Focus on managing risk while leveraging expected low volatility in the near term.

November 17, 2024