VGLT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Institutional investors are increasingly favoring long-term bonds. Historical trends indicate a potential rally before anticipated Fed rate cuts, favoring bond allocations. Recent purchase data reveals significant interest from large investors.


Bearish Case: VGLT showed significant underperformance over various holding periods. The current flat price action and lower relative volatility suggest limited immediate bullish catalysts. High put volume indicates bearish sentiment.


Potential Outcomes: High probability (70%) of continued flat trading. Moderate chance (25%) of a rally if rate cuts are hinted. Low probability (5%) of a sharp decline due to unexpected market shocks or adverse macroeconomic conditions.


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June 27, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Forecast

VGLT      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VGLT



SPTL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTL  Active Trust - SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury (1.0)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.99)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.98)


LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTPZ  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (0.98)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.98)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VGLT



ARDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARDX  Ardelyx (0.0)


APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (0.0)


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (0.0)


SLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLG  SL Green Realty (-0.0)


IP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IP  International Paper (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VGLT



RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.67)


ARLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARLP  Alliance Resource (-0.67)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.69)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.72)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.98)





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