REAL Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: REAL's recent price recovery and high implied volatility, along with potential growth in the luxury resale market, signal optimism. The mean-reverting nature of its pricing suggests a stabilized upward trend.




Bearish Case: Elevated put volume and skepticism about the business model's scalability pose risks. Persistent high volatility and market uncertainty may drive prices down if negative catalysts emerge.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 45% chance of moving towards $6 driven by sustainability trends.
  • 35% chance of stabilizing around $5 reflecting mean reversion.
  • 20% risk of falling below $4 due to high volatility.



April 15, 2025


Therealreal Forecast

REAL        Therealreal











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