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RILY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: RILY might rebound as asset sales potentially stabilize financial stress, drawing investor confidence. Recent insider buying and improved strategy execution could favor growth, while high options volatility suggests upcoming price action.



Bearish Case: Continued pressure from unresolved legal matters and high debt may lead RILY to further declines. The current low trading volume hints at potential weak market sentiment, with bearish sentiment amplified by volatility and put trading volume.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued decline (60%), driven by legal and operational challenges.

2. Stabilization around $5.50 (25%), if asset sales proceed smoothly.

3. Recovery rally (15%) on improved investor sentiment post-asset sale announcements.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a short volatility strategy: sell RILY $6.0 call and buy $10.0 call (expiry in ~21 days), leveraging the high implied volatility and a market edge. Target a high probability-of-profit and maximize returns if trading volatility drops. Manage risk through stop-loss limits.


October 27, 2024


B. Riley Financial Forecast

RILY        B. Riley Financial

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RILY


SOYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOYB  Teucrium Soybean (0.77)


TX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TX  Ternium S.A. - (0.77)


AMBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMBC  AMBAC Financial (0.76)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (0.76)


HAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAL  Halliburton (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RILY


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (-0.0)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (-0.0)


IYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IYT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Transportation (0.01)


ADVM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADVM  Adverum Biotechnologies (0.01)


TME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TME  Tencent Music Entertainment Group - (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RILY


PLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLTR  Palantir (-0.8)


MANH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MANH  Manhattan Associates (-0.81)


CHKP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHKP  Check Point Software Technolgies (-0.82)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.82)


INFY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFY  Infosys (-0.85)







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